August 5 Means Missouri Primary Day

Many of you know that I have been following the Republican primary race in Missouri, where Sarah Steelman and Kenny Hulshof are facing off to be the Republican candidate for governor in this fall’s election.

Stateline.org published a strong news piece yesterday which further delineates why this race is so important to Missouri and how this race “tells a larger story about the condition of the Republican Party nationally.

The fight between Steelman and Hulshof is Tuesday’s most closely watched contest and tells a larger story about the condition of the Republican Party nationally. The party’s leader, President George W. Bush, is unpopular with a majority of Americans and polls show Republicans’ favorable views of their party have dropped 10 percentage points in the last year mainly because of conservative disenchantment.

“It’s not a generically good year to be running as a Republican,” said L. Marvin Overby, a professor at the University of Missouri in Columbia. “Their brand name has been tarnished, recently by the indictment of (Alaska Sen.) Ted Stevens. There’s a sense the Democrats have the wind at their backs and will be competitive.”

…

Steelman’s strategy has been to tap into voter discontent with Congress by portraying Hulshof, who has served six terms, as a Washington insider while presenting herself as an outsider who wants to shake up the political establishment. She has relentlessly attacked Hulshof for his support of earmarks—projects slipped into spending bills by individual congressmen.

Hulshof, 50, of Columbia, has tried to turn his experience into an asset. A lawyer, Hulshof was a special prosecutor in the state attorney general’s office before he was elected to Congress, beating a Democratic incumbent. The 9th District covers 25 counties in northeast and central Missouri.

Steelman, 50, of Rolla, is not exactly a political newcomer. She was a state senator before she was elected treasurer and married into one of Missouri’s most prominent Republican families. Her husband is a former state senator, her father-in-law was a former state GOP chairman and her sister-in-law was a senior official in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations.

…

“Whether it’s a presidential election or a statewide primary, the way you win a GOP primary is by being more conservative than your opponent,” said George Connor, an associate professor at Missouri State University in Springfield.

In recent weeks, Steelman has played up one key difference between the candidates. Blunt and the Republican-led Missouri Legislature pushed through a requirement that nearly every gallon of gasoline contain 10 percent ethanol, a biofuel made of corn. Hulshof, who is also a corn farmer, supports the mandate. Steelman initially supported the requirement but now says government mandates often drive up prices.

The injection of the ethanol issue late in the campaign has everything to do with Missouri’s political geography. To win a statewide GOP primary, a candidate must snare a majority of votes from the St. Louis and Kansas City suburbs, the rural middle of the state and southern Missouri, which includes the vast Lake of the Ozarks recreation area.

Hulshof is best known in his northeast and central Missouri congressional district, which includes many corn farmers. Steelman’s base of support is southern Missouri, where there are more farmers raising livestock than growing crops who are paying high prices for corn in part because of the demand created by the increase in ethanol production.

What happens next is up to voters. Most have estimated that about 30 percent of eligible Missourians will vote today, which is a fair amount for a primary but certainly nothing to brag about.

I spoke with one Missouri voter tonight who says he is torn about the primary tomorrow. Not much for partisan politics, he is conflicted because he lives in the city and there are some conservative Democrats he would like to support. (Being a Republican, or winning anything as one, in St. Louis city is not an option.) On the other hand, I’ve been instrumental in getting this voter to care about politics in the first place and he wants to join me in supporting Sarah Steelman. (Full disclosure: I donated money to Steelman’s campaign.) As a St. Louis county voter, I did not have to reconcile the same sort of situation; I’m free to vote for Republicans who actually stand a chance at getting something done. I don’t know what this voter will choose to do, but when I find out, I’ll post it here.

Related Links: Click here and here for more information.

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 5th, 2008 at 12:26 am and is filed under Election 2008, Missouri. The entry is tagged under You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.